Story and Art by Jim Reilly, southcoast247.com associate editor
June 11, 2007
"The Sound of Settling"
It’s official. Julio Lugo stinks. For anyone waiting for the diminutive Dominican slapper to snap out of it, I heartily recommend you take a look at his statistics from the second half of the 2006, during his time with the Dodgers for evidence that this is more than just a slump. Sure, Lugo leads the league in runs batted in by a leadoff hitter, but keep in mind that a good chunk of those RBI are coming in the guise of sacrifice fly balls and ground ball outs, which reflects in Lugo’s paltry .274 OBP (here’s a fun fact; Cardinal’s pitcher Matt Morris has a better OBP than that). While Lugo has shown impressive speed (17 for 17 in stolen base attempts), the fact that he rarely gets on base in the first place renders that statistic somewhat moot.
This is the guy Theo Epstein and company were salivating over since they sent Edgar Renteria to Atlanta in 2005, and, despite being on the wrong side of 30, as well as the aforementioned disastrous second half of 2006 , the Red Sox have committed to a four year/$36 million dollar deal with Lugo. For comparison’s sake, Alex Gonzalez – the best defensive shortstop in the history of the club – signed a three year, $13 million dollar deal with the Cincinnati Reds, where he’s not only showing off with the glove, but is also hitting .280, with eleven home runs, and an .800 OBPS. Not bad for the guy that Lugo was considered an offensive upgrade over.
You can’t blame Lugo, though; to paraphrase Bill Parcels’, “he is what he is.” I pin the blame squarely on Theo Epstein, former boy wonder/current class clown. After all, you’d have to be a joker to sign J.D. Drew to a 5 year/$70 million dollar contract when you could have easily retained the services of fan favorite Trot Nixon for short years and short money, thus paving the way for future studs Jacoby Ellsbury and Brandon Moss, or the overlooked David Murphy. Now, with four years left on Drew’s contract, another two left on Coco Crisp’s (3 years/ $15.75 million), and Manny Ramirez seemingly destined to finish his career as a Red Sox, we’ve now got a logjam in the outfield for the foreseeable future. And let’s not forget the glorified spare part that is Wily Mo Pena (yet another bad move by Epstein), whose potential continues to rot away on the bench as Epstein goes out of his way to find Terry Francona reasons not to use him.
While the Red Sox got off to a hot start this season, they’ve already lost five games on the red hot Yankees (who are now 9.5 games back), and will continue to lose ground unless Lugo, Crisp, and Drew start to live up to whatever potential Epstein and the brain trust saw in these guys in the first place. We can ill afford a line-up dependent on the kind of production Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell put up in May, because there is no way they can keep that up for the rest of the season. Eventually, those guys will cool off (Lowell’s already shown signs of it, thanks, in part, to a thumb injury sustained in last weekend’s Yankees series), and if the new guys don’t heat up soon, we won’t be in first place for long.
It’s official. Julio Lugo stinks. For anyone waiting for the diminutive Dominican slapper to snap out of it, I heartily recommend you take a look at his statistics from the second half of the 2006, during his time with the Dodgers for evidence that this is more than just a slump. Sure, Lugo leads the league in runs batted in by a leadoff hitter, but keep in mind that a good chunk of those RBI are coming in the guise of sacrifice fly balls and ground ball outs, which reflects in Lugo’s paltry .274 OBP (here’s a fun fact; Cardinal’s pitcher Matt Morris has a better OBP than that). While Lugo has shown impressive speed (17 for 17 in stolen base attempts), the fact that he rarely gets on base in the first place renders that statistic somewhat moot.
